Beneficial climatic conditions, particularly heavy rains, resulted in strong flowering and a high yield forecast. During our field trips, producers and export managers stated production increases of 25–50%. While these estimates may lean toward optimism, the outlook for the new crop remains undeniably positive. This puts Ethiopian coffee in an excellent position, especially given the production bottleneck of global top producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam. Accordingly, the ECX has set an ambitious export goal of $2 billion, a significant increase from last year’s $1.4 billion.
Early shipments anticipated
Thanks to the early flowering, first coffees of the new season arrived in Addis Ababa earlier than expected. However, the situation requires ongoing monitoring due to continued volatility in the Red Sea region. Although some ships are navigating through the Suez Canal again, others are still opting for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which prolongs delivery times. With strikes underway at Port Rotterdam and the looming possibility of port strikes along the US eastern seaboard, logistical challenges may grow. However, we remain optimistic as first containers of new crop already departed for the port of Djibouti.
Historic High Market Prices
Driven by supply concerns and the upcoming EUDR implementation, global coffee prices have surged to record-breaking levels. Prices peaked at $3.50 per pound—more than a 50% increase compared to last year and over 100% higher than five years ago. In response, the National Bank of Ethiopia has steadily raised its minimum export prices to match these fluctations.